The Black Swan is Here

  • A black swan event is an extremely rare event with severe consequences.
  • It cannot be predicted beforehand, though after the event, many claim it should be predictable.
  • Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy.

This COVID-19 PANDEMIC, is indeed a Black Swan. The last time a pandemic of this scale happened was almost a century ago – during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. The Spanish Flu infected 500 million people worldwide and claimed 20-50 million lives. That’s a dreadful figure!

Thankfully, in our time now, information is easily dissiminated through various media channels – text/calls, messaging apps, social networks, traditional media, and the internet. Awareness and safety tips are easily campaigned to everyone. The government’s early implementation of “community quarantine” made the spread of Covid-19 pandemic “manageable”, at least in the Philippines. Perhaps, we are learning from the costly mistakes of other countries that we do all precautionary measures.

Tomorrow, March 16, Luzon mainland will be under “Enhanced Community Quarantine” with other key cities and provinces joining the effort. Only “essential businesses” can continue operations – food production / medicine & health care / utility companies… Leisure, entertainment, travel, and any mass gatherings are suspended. This “lock down” is catastrophic to the economy, as many people will lose their livelihood and source of income. This is where we brace for impact – and welcome the “new normal“.

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